Host : Good morning, everyone! Day hawk flies over the storm far, the lovely side emerges in the exhibition of Hainan Island. Still several experts and insiders carry on the speech and elite and talk today, now ask the urban and rural areas in China to be built to chief of institute Dr. Chen the Huaihe River. Invite.

    Chen Huai: I would like to exchange the view with everybody today, the ones that would like to want to listen to the room rate to fall sit on the left, want listen to room rate fall sit on the right , say room rate fall and the ten reasons that rise with you specially, the price under market economy fluctuates, is an inevitable phenomenon of the market economy, our necessary typhoon just now that the host talked about of research, the typhoon comes each time all of us said what kind of harm will be formed, how it will be we reply,come typhoon , this piece to want typhoon , year want typhoon on the quarter this month such as Hainan, this may inevitable, but Hainan will inevitablely come typhoon, we need only research Hainan come how reply typhoon, do not need to study the question of this macro adjustments and controls , does not need the question that this price fluctuates . The price is sure to fluctuate, because people buy the house without consuming today, seafood discount I is it gain extra advantage by unfair means to take today, discount I wipe out tomorrow, but the house must be consumed, while all one's life, you will certainly have an opportunity to face the chance that the room rate drops , or face the vexation with upward room rate, this's true, this's a objective law. An objective one that we discuss is tendency of house market and subjective poolicy orientation, and everybody maintain one's own interests, when enter the market, rent or buy, can not in fact do without a very important factor, that is the risk.

    Tell a story, do Americans adjust and control the real estate? U.S.A. adjusts and controls the real estate too, there is macro adjustments and controls too. For example, I when U.S.A. studies, landlord tell me first thing, you is it live in here to rest assured, it is limited that you live in my house risk. Why? Because U.S.A. has a decree to add state government, the annual rent rent price goes up and can not exceed 7% at the top, even if the room rate goes up this year, the demand increases big, then the landlord can't add this of the rent before the contract has not expired for tenants either is not all right, the contract can only be added to 7% at most at the specified date. I ask the economic professor of the best Stanford University in the world , he tells me, need house a true one reflection most at leasing market really , buy house attempt who does it distinguish congenial , who make the investment, who live alone, who is it obtain income is very difficult to do , even if we look like economic compensation to used for, registering once the national ordinary people's investigation in the house, we have such a big policy cost to pay, we have any method that prevent the investigator from being bribed, can not do . So long as control and lease prices, it is so good, this market is that all is really all a true reflections which need house people. The leasing market is and middle and low income group's stratum, a market needing the interests of the strata of the society and government assistance to be most directly correlated with. Two here proper arrangement from,will all do ordinary people including amateur media reporter.

    The third proper arrangement from, so long as we control the growth rate of the rent, in fact we define expectancy of investment repayment for one society. People then buy house , is it is it when the heavy investment repayment , have an object of reference more to obtain to expect. This is that a great deal of capital behaviors of building the house, buying the house, sold the house and there are house properties etc. have a final valve of control. The fourth proper arrangement from,yesterday I notice,see file, I have not heard Professor Fan Gang give lessons , but I will certainly know that he can speak an " balanced " word , say that has not talked ? The key question of economics is explained balancedly , it is balanced that Marx says and melts the theory equally, the trade make money especially, capital of society gather around here , supply with more, the profit payback of this field , this industry , is evenned up with other industries, there must be an balanced mechanism. As price high a when very of renting house, people hold house hire out , because the supply of the leasing market is getting heavy , the price leased will drop. As lease prices very low, and the room rate goes up quickly , and sell the house and make money even more, a lot of people get out the house, so as to obtain and go up and obtain incomes by holding prices, or buy the new house and sell and obtain incomes in the next cycle , by leasing and obtaining incomes, set up an automatic balanced mechanism of repayment between the two. Are there reasons? Adapt to China? We can also analyse , but we say that this gives us a suggestion at least, in this market, how to distribute the house we do not need very complicated system to consider which stratum ordinary people are , then in what kind of level does it control the price of house, direct these price in fact, the government is fixed on some positions, what kind of price is high, people do not know what kind of price is high , what kind of price is low.

    A lot of reporters will stick the model on the net again, you do not really know what kind of price is high or low , among the evolution, room rate sure constant change with development of national economy because of national economy, because supply and demand must change with people's expectancy to the inflation , deflation . The accumulation of people's wealth with constant level, how many people hold the sure change of this composition of the house property in the whole society, in fact what we discussed is not how many houses how many people the whole society have to need the house and have, this is an aspect, another aspect is in the total composition of the whole wealth of society , will certainly it forms to be currency while being some, another part it forms to be house. What we decide is that this part of people holds the currency, hold the house property on earth, in what big degree that part of persons hold the currency and hold the house property, in a word the national wealth of the whole society is a total amount, among them a part is the currency , a part is a house property. It is like this in the macroeconomics theory.

    We reach anything time now, ordinary people most people before this hold house property begin to hold house property change these stage, because people's assets accumulate after a large amount of of one, there is such an unavoidable choice. I is it enter theme yet to say while being above-mentioned, I theme said to want whether we need study to hold by who question that take on it will be risk? People can hold the currency , can hold the house property , hold the assets, holding the physical assets, it was the question of a risk that was held the room rate ups and downs that are that people discuss and discussed in fact, if we think carefully, the media would tell we two propositions, one most civilian afford and afford issue of room, one to hold issue that coin look around, in fact these two statements are contradictory, where is the contradiction? Is it look around to afford , carry water leave , follow what relations I have, people had not entered sensitive one to the price of this kind of product yet at that time, he will not cause too many change of the demand to the change of the price. The price enters sensitive one now, that is to say that we are in this period , the room rate gains , at an high and elastic stage to the price correctly. Our present question is on this market, the developer building the house , investing in the house supplies with the side , a direct one with buy house with social stratum at structure, in price, in direct standing facing each other on area distribute, there is not any buffer in the course of this competition for and asking , disperse the leeway of the risk, this causes people's battle about the poor , the rich, form the unreasonable society that cause to pay close attention to about the villa room and economic and functional house at present of ours, these things all exist, but what we wanted to say even more is please notice , our present question is not merely that room rate is high and low, whether match with ordinary people's income, and the middle and low income group's housing need must not get enough society and the government's aid . The question earlier stage people discuss not many already, I want say we very willing to borrow mouth of media now, tell our ordinary people , it is that the house which you buy has not been taken in one day as eating the seafood in one year to face the problem that it is biggest now, it is not like clothes, I do not wear it just after wearing prevailing in one the Spring Festival and second year, not like other cosmetics change a brand either, you will live for 20 years , 30 years possibly in house or all one's life, and risk that hold for a long time, the whole society oneself risk all adding all respects to the house purchaser's body that should bear, this's the true problem that we face.

    Ordinary people's why now is looked around, people think that will have possible to be lower than today price tomorrow, people will be making great efforts to evade the risks of the ups and downs of prices. So far as talked just now like me, even if the price will drop 20% tomorrow , really buy, house drop for 20% again the following five years, you buy today, might the next three years went up 30% too, must go through the course of the ups and downs of the room rate in the following twenty or thirty years, the key problem is that the ordinary people should assume the risk that like this , if people buy stocks, there is one purpose , must let the currency gain larger currency , the cost gained is a risk, but people buy the house not such a purpose, the overwhelming majority is, or should give mechanism of a allocation of risks to them .

    Unless fluctuate one of risks piece, will certainly risky in this,in fact face we far above it last risk of fluctuations not upper and lower by price, and still include the more heavy one, our interest rate over the last 13 years nearly falls without rising , it is a since 1996 historical minimum now, and does not say in 20 , ten years , the total trend of the interest rate hastens and rises but hasten and fall within five years, and the mortgage which the bank sign with all mortgage person is the floating interest rate, it sounds very fair and reasonable, no one will know who rises whom to fall in the interest rate in the future, pay more monthly mortgage to become a person of mortgage too while rising , should pay mortgage little to become a person of mortgage too while falling , but hastenned and rose in the future , so added all risks to the house purchaser. Still including the change of the system, in the course of changing in housing system, supply and demand are changing, it is the real estate that completed floor spaces of urban residents are only less than 1/3 among them , over 2/3 is built , reconstructed by oneself , will be contrast relation for and asking of the market will come to changing, this kind of demand that people have a meal, people live on rice, it is flurried not to eat the hungry one , impossible meal that take is it take tomorrow , the day after tomorrow to shift onto today, buy garment may, but buy all right these of the clothes and does not buy for three months, but I spend the equally a lot of money in one year. We calculate the aggregate demand of supply to calculate for ten years, the change in every year may be very big, person that should get married in one year, can a large amount of concentrate on and buy house in one year very much, postpone or it buys to be contingent ahead of time , bring room rate and risk that supply-demand relationship change, the changes of interest rate , tax rate , exchange rate , inflation rate, are all in risky one at present.

    Newspapers have been already we , in order to advance the energy-conserving province ground in constant discussion now, in order to suppress the rich's luxurious consumption , in order to economize resources , may adopt and hold the thing that levies taxs of link to real estate , real estate , we do not need to guess this year or next year , put out this policy in three months or next year, but what I can conclude say the system will certainly have , just as we is it come typhoon the typhoon will come the day after tomorrow tomorrow to know today, but Hainan Island is sure the typhoon comes, because there are assets under market economy must levy taxs , this leeway discussed to have, must.

    This system changes the risk that may bring , us present house purchasers, the overwhelming majority does not almost have mental preparation. For example, labor cost property fee brought to rise rise, for example, of the course macroscopical economical operation again and then, it was the national economy that increase every year, it was only the change because of the growth rate, the room rate may emerge and fluctuate , increase by 10%, it is a speed that the room rate goes up, growth 5% , 7%, the room rate change is a speed, people do not think 7% is unhappy slowly in the whole world, but may be colder in China, will produce a risk , has everybody thought of the? Nearly the government , bank , insurance company , intermediary , developer now, all taxes added in macro adjustments and controls are the indirect tax, all indirect tax can be shifted to consumers finally, everybody adds all risks on ordinary people of the house purchaser simultaneously, tacitly, ordinary people to is it take precautious a undisguised one in the face of these risks to have at all almost, can not find out today , tomorrow, the typhoon comes the day after tomorrow you will know that the house will not be strengthened, you do not have even umbrella sheltered from the rain, your house locates in low-lying yet, you knew at that time what a great loss this thing is.

    Residents who will can't hold the house property in this risk bore, the society should offer the abundant one enough to let ordinary people in the house , ordinary people holding it avoid dangerous way and way , for example in the country with more developed market economy, most developers not merely make the investment and build the room , the strong developer must build the house , sell the house and hold the house property , hold house property become they seek chance one important way very among balanced leasing market and one second tertiary market, have provide a foundation for equilibrium of the price too in this way course, has dispersed the risk for ordinary people and offered a foundation too. We require, we expect the evolution in the future, what the developer discusses here is not merely the question how to sell out the house, but more financial ways help them to hold , participate in the leasing market. Don't think these whose have a brainwave , Arabian Nights , this market economy developed country that developer have usually normal assets form the way very, it is not any something new. This is looking in a short time.

    Coming to look in middle period, we need to open up a lot of to avoid dangerous way for ordinary people, some risks should not be undertaken by ordinary people, should be undertaken by the system, should be undertaken by other main bodies of the market. For example we do the mortgage loan now, the insurance company requires the insurance that ordinary people buy by force, it is not in fact any risk of evading the house purchaser, does not lighten any risk of yours , it was the risk of the bank that was lightenned. The government leaves the risk leeway for ordinary people to a certain extent too in fact, seeing a news yesterday, the government in Shenzhen proposed adding the trade extra charges of the real estate, that is to say that as the market changes , appreciation takes place in the land , or the transaction cost changes because of the market reason, government's very easy toll or the method of the fee, add the risk on the holder's head, and the house purchaser is nearly undisguised in the face of these. Certainly I just put forward the question today, real research, we need a very tight system, it is not merely that the developer holds the house property , in the long run, more real estate funds are being bought and sold, supply was square that I said just now and amount of an operating organization and fund had between the demand sides , the behavior of their investment is dispersed and born, because the inflation or deflation change in macroscopical economical operation course, supply and demand periodicity in a short time change, and change , exchange rate of interest rate change , change , risk that change causes of inflation rate of tax system. On long terms, even we have an opportunity to discuss that give ordinary people a fictitious way to evade risk, for example average price index of the real estate, why did a lot of people purchase house ahead of time, I originally prepared and purchased house in 07 , 08, why bought ahead of time, because people said that the room rate rose everyday, having bought me and still can economize some money by 08 this year, if there is a fictitious investment way, really confirm that rises , and will really rise , why can not put out the index of the real estate, enable ordinary people to make the investment? Give a hedging of civilian way to evade risk in fact, certainly say a little more specializedly, is it is it explain this subject to leave Fan Gang Professor while being the first stage of to make. Thank you.

    Put questions live: Thank Dr. Chen very much for lecturing for us so on time at first. Our enterprise of development of real estate from hinterland, the forum of Bo'ao is a annual distinguished gathering to us, everybody reflects the heartfelt wishes here, we are bringing question to hope to bring the question to go back. You said two keywords just now, the risk and ordinary people, it was the person building the house for ordinary people that the real estate developer said, as the developer, I want to ask you , we are on the premise of policy of macro adjustments and controls, rational risk of evading how is the developer? This is my first question. You are as the policy expert, what is it the country carry on the central purpose of macro adjustments and controls? Since our country carried on macro adjustments and controls, 831, eight countries,etc., mentioned adjusting back at the finance developed urban room rate of Shanghai mainly, and the room rates of the hinterland are more steady, the phenomenon of falling after rise is not very obvious.

    Chen Huai: Since you talk about you are a developer , you study what the purpose of the macroscopical policy is, just as residents in Hainan study what the purpose that the typhoon comes is, is it necessary? Typhoon sure to come, counter-measure of you to strengthen house of you, to block place of ink tight you, don't flood . That's settled then.

    Put questions: Please allow me to express thanks for your excellent speech at first. My question thank very much, relevant officers of Ministry of Construction show at present , the outstanding problem with unreasonable structure of supply still exists in the real estate at present, what kind of measure will Ministry of Construction take next to change such unreasonable structure?

    Chen Huai: Should ask the minister of Ministry of Construction this question. But we say the structure of supply of the house is unreasonable it is a fact, it seems that we cite the example of a supply and demand , mostly several people can afford to eat the homely meal now, but there are a lot of seafood shops on the street, so the policy can become effective in three months, this awaits scholar and government to study. The government wants to guarantee the house built every year, it is impossible to make each demand satisfied, this is determined of limited resource, the demand for the rich's luxurious consumption solved of the government has priority to be satisfied, the housing need of middle and low income group's difficult colony has priority to be satisfied in case of supply of limited resources, this is structure of supply. Thanks.